China Is Not 1914 Germany

Popular geopolitical commentary loves historical analogy—but not all comparisons are created equal. In this Diplomat piece, Robert Dujarric dissects the oft-invoked parallel between modern China and 1914 Germany, finding it both seductive and dangerously misleading. He stresses that Beijing’s strategic posture, alliance vacuum, and demographic limits make it a wholly different actor than Kaiser Wilhelm’s empire.

The essay critiques the reflex to apply European precedents to Asian contexts, warning that such analogies distort both history and present-day policy. By insisting on a clearer, more specific analysis of China’s geopolitical strategy, Dujarric calls for greater restraint in how policymakers and pundits frame the risks of regional conflict. This isn’t a rerun of World War I—it’s something entirely new.