Is China Missing Its Opportunity to Lead?

Robert Dujarric argues that while China’s rapid growth and Belt and Road expansion once positioned it as a rising global leader, mounting debt, slowing domestic demand, and partner pushback now threaten its strategic ambitions . He warns that without structural reforms—greater market openness, enhanced rule of law, and transparent governance—Beijing risks ceding influence to more adaptable competitors .

Dujarric concludes that China must pivot from state-driven constructs to more flexible institutions and partnerships if it hopes to set lasting global norms, rather than merely expanding its footprint . Otherwise, the window to lead may close as swiftly as it opened .