Japan in a post-U.S. world

Amid debates in 2008 about American decline, Robert Dujarric explores how Japan might adjust if U.S. global leadership significantly receded. He posits that while the U.S. isn’t disappearing, trends like the financial crisis and costly wars indicated a possible reduction in U.S. international engagement (“post-U.S. world” meaning a world less centered on America). For Japan, which has long depended on U.S. security guarantees and an American-shaped global order, this scenario would be challenging. Dujarric argues that Japan should contemplate more self-reliance and regional leadership: bolstering its defense capabilities, diversifying security partnerships (with countries like Australia, India, or even improving relations with China), and taking initiative in multilateral diplomacy, since it may not always rely on Washington’s umbrella or direction.

He also discusses the psychological shift required – Japan’s political class and public would need to overcome a certain strategic passivity cultivated during decades of U.S. hegemony. In a more multipolar environment, Japan would have to act more boldly to protect its interests. The commentary is partly cautionary: if Japan doesn’t prepare for a “post-U.S.” scenario, it could find itself vulnerable or marginalized. By raising these points, Dujarric encourages Japan to envision possible futures where it must play a more central role in maintaining regional stability and liberal international norms, in case America’s willingness or ability to do so wanes.